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Modeling dynamic and network heterogeneities in the spread of sexually transmitted diseases

机译:模拟性传播疾病传播中的动态和网络异质性

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摘要

A wide range of communicable human diseases can be considered as spreading through a network of possible transmission routes. The implied network structure is vital in determining disease dynamics, especially when the average number of connections per individual is small as is the case for many sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Here we develop an intuitive mathematical framework to deal with the heterogeneities implicit within contact networks and those that arise because of the infection process. These models are compared with full stochastic simulations and show excellent agreement across a wide range of parameters. We show how such models can be used to estimate parameters of epidemiological importance, and how they can be extended to examine the effectiveness of various control strategies, in particular screening programs and contact tracing.
机译:广泛的人类传染病可以认为是通过可能的传播途径网络传播的。隐含的网络结构对于确定疾病动态至关重要,尤其是当每个人的平均连接数较少时(如许多性传播疾病(STD)一样)。在这里,我们开发了一个直观的数学框架来处理接触网络中隐含的异质性以及由于感染过程而产生的异质性。这些模型与完整的随机模拟进行了比较,并显示出广泛参数之间的出色一致性。我们将展示如何使用这些模型来估算流行病学重要性参数,以及如何将其扩展以检查各种控制策略的有效性,尤其是筛查程序和接触者追踪。

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